Hurricane 2023 Predictions

Hurricane 2023 Predictions

Tropical Storm Outlook and Forecast

Alberto, the Portable Generator Expert
Portable Generator Expert

HurricaneBelieve it or not, hurricane season is just around the corner. In any given calendar year, the tropical storm season runs from approximately June 1 through November 30 in the Atlantic Ocean, Eastern U.S., and the Caribbean.

Now is the time to make preparations for the 2022 season. When it comes to a hurricane, don't "wing it." The flooding rains, behemoth storm surges, and powerful winds can surprise even the most experienced hurricane veteran.

Storms are unpredictable, be sure to follow our severe weather updatesfor up-to-date alerts from the nation's top weather and news outlets, or scroll to the bottom of this article for a live feed.

Last Year's Hurricane Season in Review

First, let's review what transpired last year. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was intense. A total of 14 named storms formed, including 8 hurricanes and two major hurricanes (111 mph winds or higher).

Hurricane Ian was particularly damaging to the U.S., making landfall in Florida and South Carolina. It clocked in as a Category 4 Hurricane and tied for the fifth-strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in the U.S. It caused 161 total fatalities and nearly $113 billion in damage across its path.

Read a full recap of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Hurricane Forecast for 2023

[palm trees]UPDATED 8/07/2023:

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be larger than normal in terms of activity. Based on water temperatures, wind conditions, and past data, experts predict 18 named tropical storms, 9 of which will be hurricanes and 4 of which will be major hurricanes. A total of 35 days of hurricane activity are predicted over the course of the season, 9 of which will be major hurricane days. Overall, there is a 50 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will strike somewhere along the continental U.S. coastline. Read the full scientific forecast.

How Hurricanes Form

Atlantic hurricanes form based on a combination of warm ocean temperatures in the tropics and westward winds blowing from Africa.

  1. Westward winds cause the warm tropical water (80F) to evaporate into the atmosphere, creating clouds and thunderstorms.
  2. The low pressure area caused by the rising warm air draws surrounding air, which in turn becomes warm and evaporates up.
  3. This cycle of air movement continues and builds into a powerful tropical storm system as long as there is warm surface air to feed it. If the storm system hits land or enters cooler waters, it will eventually lose steam and dissipate.

Hurricane Severity

A tropical storm system moves through several stages in its development. The following chart outlines the different stages of severity from least damaging to most damaging.

Severity Wind Speed (mph) Storm Surge (ft)
Tropical Storm 39-73 0-3
Category 1 74-95 4-5
Category 2 96-110 6-8
Category 3 111-129 9-12
Category 4 130-156 13-18
Category 5 157+ 19+

The Bottom Line

Hurricane forecasts that take into account real-world conditions and past patterns can be a generally reliable guide in predicting the upcoming season. Still, it's never an exact science and anything can happen. Stay tuned for forecast updates, and remember to prepare for the storm by stocking up supplies and getting the best electric backup generator.

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Alberto, the Portable Generator Expert
Portable Generator Expert
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